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What will Black Friday bring this week: A predictions round-up

Total Black Friday spend over the next week is expected to top £7 billion to £7.42 billion up by 15% on the same period last year, according to the latest forecast from IMRG.

The company has found that nearly half of retailers it had surveyed (80 out of 210) were already running Black Friday deals from last week with 46% of those already offering at least a 30% discount on goods. On the day itself it expects to see a £1.35 billion spend, up 9% on last year.

Payments provider Ingencio is expecting a 350% rise in global spending on an average Friday – higher than the spend increase in the US. In the UK it expects spend to be 318% higher. Last year Ingenico processed 29% more online payments during the Black Friday weekend compared to the same period in the previous year and expects even higher increases this year.

Although many shoppers will be buying online, ShopperTrak predicts a rise in UK shopper traffic of 20% on the daily average on Black Friday itself and up 8% over the weekend too.

Amazon, for the first time since bringing Black Friday to the UK in 2010, is hosting a four-day home of Black Friday pop-up store in central London. The popup store will allow customers to explore the best of the Black Friday sale and Amazon Prime and will include product demonstrations, gift advice and prize giveaways.

The Black Friday weekend will see more than 82,000 lorries on the road delivering more than 225 million parcels, according to courier insurers Staveley Head. It has researched brands including Amazon, Argos and Royal Mail to go behind the scenes to find out how such brands will manage the peak.

According to its research Sunday is expected to see the biggest day for goods in transit with Hermes alone predicting it will be delivering 750,000 parcels on the Sunday. It is adding an extra 3,000 vehicles on top of its normal 10,000 fleet to handle the Black Friday demind whilst Yodel is adding an extra 7,000 to its 2,500 normal fleet.

The study also shows that Royal Mail, Argos and Amazon are recruiting an additional 49,000 seasonal staff to deal with the peak. Ashley Peters, managing director at Staveley Head, said: “As insurers of Courier and HGV drivers in the UK, we wanted to go behind the scenes to see the impact of Black Friday on logistics and what happens once an order has been placed. The amount of extra staff and vans hired to deal with the sheer volume of parcels is quite incredible, and can be a very expensive, logistical nightmare for so many companies. It is therefore no surprise that some brands decide to skip Black Friday and focus purely on Christmas during peak season.”

He said the company’s research aims to raise awareness of the behind the scenes effort that courier drivers, warehouse operatives, retail employees and postmen/woman go to, in order to deliver a smooth and efficient service each year. For more information about the report see http://www.staveleyhead.co.uk/assets/black-friday-christmas-logistics/black-friday/

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